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Women’s Bantamweights

Ailin Perez (7-2, 0-1 UFC) vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-5, 3-5 UFC)

ODDS: Perez (-200), Evans-Smith (+170)

The women’s bantamweight division is as wide open as ever, so this would be a good time for one of these two to find some much-needed momentum. Perez has picked up the mantle from Bethe Correia, in that she is a subpar athlete who carries a ton of overconfidence in her own abilities; unlike Correia, the Argentinian gets by as an aggressive wrestler. That led to some messy but clear wins on the regional scene, but Perez struggled in the transition up to the UFC level against Stephanie Egger in September, even if she did put in a game effort against a strong grappler before falling victim to a second-round armbar. There is enough potential in Perez that she could find enough wins to stick on the roster—something that did not seem to be a guarantee heading into her UFC debut—but it is difficult to calibrate exactly how she will fare against Evans-Smith, who makes a surprising return after nearly three years out of the cage. “Rebel Girl” was particularly green when she signed with the UFC in 2014 but had some potential as a strong athlete with a collegiate wrestling background, and she showed clear improvement as a striker for the first few years of her UFC tenure. However, in her last few fights before her recent layoff, Evans-Smith’s well-roundedness had begun to turn the corner more into aimlessness, with her not leaving much impact on her opponents and her typical fallback of wrestling also not looking particularly effective. There is a chance that Perez’s own wrestling hits a clear athletic wall against a physically stout opponent, but nothing with Evans-Smith seemed to be clicking the last time we saw her. As a result, Perez could win this through sheer effort. It is a hard fight to parse, but the pick is Perez via decision.

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