UFC 165 ‘Jones vs. Gustafsson’ Preview

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Heavyweights

Matt Mitrione (6-2, 6-2 UFC) vs. Brendan Schaub (9-3, 5-3 UFC)

The Matchup: Shortly after Season 10 of “The Ultimate Fighter” concluded, Schaub appeared to be destined for big things in the heavyweight division. Brushing off a knockout loss to Roy Nelson at the “The Ultimate Fighter 10” Finale, “The Hybrid” put together a four-fight winning streak that included notable triumphs over respected veterans Gabriel Gonzaga and Mirko Filipovic. Questions about his chin resurfaced, however, after back-to-back knockout losses to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Ben Rothwell.

To his credit, Schaub made the proper adjustments in his most recent outing, as he relied on takedowns and a heavy top game to capture a unanimous verdict over Lavar Johnson at UFC 157. It was hardly a crowd-pleasing performance, but simply relying on his speed and athleticism in exchanges with heavy-handed opposition has proven to be a risky proposition for the Coloradan.

Mitrione also has tantalizing athleticism, but at 35 years old, he has yet to capture a signature victory in the promotion. Most recently, “Meathead” stopped Philip De Fries in 19 seconds at UFC on Fuel TV 9 -- a bout that revealed little about Mitrione’s progression coming off a devastating knockout loss to Nelson in December. There is no question that Mitrione, a southpaw, has the ability to put Schaub to sleep. He is light on his feet with fast and powerful hands, and a four-inch reach advantage should allow him to land combinations on the outside. In addition, the Blackzilians product can slow Schaub with kicks to the legs and body.

However, Mitrione is largely unproven on the mat, and Schaub has displayed enough wrestling in triumphs over Johnson and Filipovic to test the former NFL player in that area. There will be some temptation for Schaub to trade with Mitrione for extended periods of time, but his tendency to leave himself open to the counter shot would ultimately lead to his demise against his opponent’s skilled hands. Instead, Schaub should use one-two combinations to close distance, allowing him to try to control the tempo of the bout through tie-ups and takedowns.

The Pick: Mitrione has some intriguing tools, but Schaub has superior all-around skills and more experience against overall better competition. Provided he can avoid the knockout, he wins a decision by making this a grinding affair.

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