Preview: UFC Fight Night 212 ‘Grasso vs. Araujo’

Flyweights

Askar Askarov (14-1-1) vs. Brandon Royval (14-6)

ODDS: Askarov (-240), Royval (+200)

Assuming Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno stop fighting each other for the UFC's flyweight championship at some point, the winner of this bout is in a strong position as part of a relatively wide-open title picture. After taking Moreno to a draw in his UFC debut in 2019, Askar Askarov quickly reeled off wins over Tim Elliott and Alexandre Pantoja to establish himself as a potential contender; if things had broken slightly differently, "Bullet" likely would've already found his way to a title shot. The Russian has shown some ability on the feet, but Askarov's approach banks almost entirely on his ability to out-wrestle, out-grapple and generally wear out his opponent on the mat. That made his win over Pantoja, a talented fighter on the mat in his own right, particularly impressive, which Askarov built on even more with a subsequent victory over Joseph Benavidez that came with its own set of issues. On paper, a dominant three-round win over the perennial second best fighter in the division would do nothing but raise Askarov's stock. But while everything went perfectly inside of the cage, Askarov missed weight prior to the fight to throw his presumed top contender status into question - and then missed the next year due to injuries anyway. Askarov figured to pick up where he left off in March against Kai Kara-France, a dangerous striker but theoretically the worst wrestler and grappler Askarov had faced in his UFC career - but Kara-France instead put in what might have been the best performance of his career, overcoming a rough first round and surprisingly stalling out the best parts of Askarov's game, leaving the Russian scrambling for answers as Kara-France took over the fight and scored the decision win. Even with that loss, Askarov's prior win over Pantoja would put him right back in the catbird seat as next contender with a victory here, so an impressive performance here is crucial against an interesting challenge in Brandon Royval.

Royval made his UFC debut shortly after the promotion's pandemic break, at which point he essentially took the flyweight division by storm; beyond scoring wins over Elliott and Kara-France, Royval did so as a whirlwind of violence, combining pace and creativity until he was suddenly able to find a submission victory. But Royval fell to earth as quickly as he stormed up the division; a grappling-heavy bout against Moreno ended suddenly when Royval separated his shoulder, and his first post-recovery bout saw him get handled rather easily by Pantoja. In a positive sign, Royval did see the need to change things up ahead of his January bout against Rogerio Bontorin, though it's unclear exactly how and when that will pay dividends; Royval was obviously more patient and selective, but runs the risk of neutering the aggression that was part of what made him so effective. Having scraped out a win against Bontorin, Royval turned around in May to take on Matt Schnell in a fight that didn't do much to show his progress - Schnell immediately started to instigate chaos, so Royval was essentially forced to revert to his old form and quickly win a wild sprint. If things suddenly click for Royval in terms of balancing his offense and defense, it wouldn't take much of a change for him to get a signature win here - he certainly has some grappling chops, and Askarov's loss to Kara-France showed how quickly Askarov can get discouraged if things don't eventually bend his way. But the safer bet for now is that Royval will be more than happy to continue grappling Askarov when Askarov initiates things on his own terms, and that figures to hand the Russian enough opportunities to lock this fight down and take it on the scorecards, if not score a submission outright. The pick is Askarov via decision.

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Grasso vs. Araujo
Swanson vs. Martinez
Askarov vs. Royval
Wright vs. Todorovic
Cirkunov vs. Menifield
The Prelims