Preview: UFC on ABC 2 ‘Vettori vs. Holland’

Women's Strawweights
Nina Nunes (10-6) vs. Mackenzie Dern (10-1)
Odds: Nunes (-120), Dern (+100)

Dern remains one of the highest-upside prospects in any division on the UFC roster, and this is the latest benchmark to see if she can live up to her considerable potential. Born into a Brazilian jiu-jitsu family, Dern was essentially taught to grapple from birth; as a result, she's one of the most decorated female submission artists of all-time, let alone one of the best to make it to the UFC roster. But since she got the UFC call less than two years after her professional mixed martial arts debut, Dern's essentially had to learn on the job inside of the Octagon. Her UFC debut, an ugly split decision win over Ashley Yoder, proved that Dern still had some work to do in terms of getting her opponents to the mat and setting them up for a submission finish. An absolute steamrolling of Amanda Cooper lessened those concerns, but they reared their head once again in Dern's lone loss to Amanda Ribas, who was able to take advantage of Dern's wild striking on the feet and proved strong and talented enough to survive on the mat. After a layoff due to pregnancy, it's been much the same story for Dern, who can outclass most opponents on the mat but has trouble getting the fight there. Her last bout, a decision win over Virna Jandiroba, was a nice change of pace against a fellow talented grappler; Dern's approach wasn't the cleanest, but she was able to set a pace and outgun Jandiroba on the feet, as well as come back from an apparent broken nose. There's still a lot for Dern to learn, but at this point she's proven to be a natural fighter who should figure things out with time; it's just a matter of whether this fight against Nunes, formerly known as Nina Ansaroff, is too much too soon. Nunes is returning from her own pregnancy layoff, and it'll be interesting to see if she can keep up where she left off as a surprising spoiler in the strawweight division. After losing her second UFC bout to Justine Kish, Nunes seemed in danger of sliding out of the promotion entirely; but after righting the ship with a win over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger, she's been shockingly successful. "The Strina" developed consistency and composure with her kickboxing attack, and as a result she's been able to outlast and pick apart flakier foes. Her last win, in a 2018 bout against Claudia Gadelha, saw her overcome a rough start to earn a decision win - and while she lost her last fight against Tatiana Suarez, Nunes was able to survive and mount a huge comeback in the third round. A win here would prove that Nunes still belongs in the strawweight title mix, and she could earn a long-awaited title shot with another win or two. This is a fight that has a relatively simple striker versus grappler dynamic; Dern's obviously the better fighter on the mat, and while she's a willing striker, Nunes has the technical acuity to keep her at bay and coast out a win if that's where the fight takes place. Nunes’ last few fights provide some worry that Dern could get off to a hot start and finish the fight quickly; Gadelha and Suarez had a ton of success with their takedowns until they started to tire and Nunes found her groove. But while Dern's a much better submission artist, she hasn't proven to be as strong of a wrestler as either Gadelha or Suarez; given that Dern's strengths are so well-known, Nunes should be able to see her clinch and wrestling attempts coming and adjust accordingly. There's also the worry for Nunes that Dern can consistently apply pressure in a way that Gadelha or Suarez, who have each had notable cardio issues, couldn't; but again, unless Dern's striking has improved dramatically or Nunes is particularly rusty, Nunes should be able to keep her range and have her way. The pick is Nunes via decision.

Continue Reading » Perry vs. Rodriguez