It has been a long regrouping process for Hernandez, but the hope
is that he can continue to recapture some of his prospect form
coming off his most consistent performance in years. Hernandez was
one of the UFC’s breakout stars in 2018, announcing himself with a
42-second knockout of Beneil
Dariush in his debut, then dominating Olivier
Aubin-Mercier to set himself up for a big 2019 run. Instead,
Hernandez’s first fight of the year saw him run into Donald
Cerrone, who blew open all of the defensive holes in his game
and seemingly did some irreparable damage to the psyche of “The
Great Ape.” Hernandez’s rebound win over Francisco
Trinaldo was an interminable and overly cautious affair, and
while things have not gotten quite that dire again, there has been
a clear pattern to his fights ever since the Cerrone loss. He can
still run over an overmatched opponent but is clearly prone to
losing confidence and composure against someone who can survive and
stage a comeback. A cut to featherweight in 2022 did not solve
those issues—though the UFC did Hernandez a bit dirty in putting
him against Billy
Quarantillo, an exceedingly durable pressure fighter—but a
one-off move back up to lightweight against Jim Miller in
February was some cause for optimism. Miller staged a late
comeback, but Hernandez spent most of the fight balancing
aggression and patience in an effective manner and got a rare
decision victory. Now Hernandez looks to prove himself once again
opposite Algeo in a bit of a redux of the Quarantillo fight.
“Senor Perfecto” is a fighter who leans on his durability in the
hopes of swamping his opponents in offense and outlasting them for
a victory. Algeo is the larger fighter—with that said, he almost
never utilizes that range advantage—but a worse athlete than
Quarantillo, which makes this a much better proof of concept fight
for Hernandez at featherweight. While Quarantillo always figured to
overwhelm and outlast Hernandez, the Factory X export may have
enough of a strength advantage to overpower Algeo in a scramble and
stick him to the mat. That is the lean here, even if a lot of this
stylistic matchup favors Algeo. Hernandez’s last performance gives
just enough hope that he can thread the needle, even if this should
be an anxiety-inducing affair for all 15 minutes. The pick is
Hernandez via decision.
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