Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Poirier vs. Johnson’

Welterweights

Roan Carneiro (20-10) vs. Kenny Robertson (15-4)

THE MATCHUP: Carneiro is more Gilbert Burns than Demian Maia. What that means is that, despite a decent grasp of striking mechanics and a pair of heavy hands, “Jucao” does not seem to believe in his strikes. He is prone to panicking and retreating straight back out of range when pressed, and he tends to duck his head and swing wildly when that does not work. Given space and time to work, Carneiro throws some decent combinations and uses them to set up his punches, but his kickboxing game lacks commitment and comfort.

Robertson is more or less the complete opposite. His punches are often wide and ropey and his positioning suspect, but he is comfortable setting his feet and letting his hands go, even if it means absorbing a few shots in the process. Robertson now fights out of a sort of semi-crouch, tucking his chin and waiting to wing a hard shot over the top. This approach allows him to plummet forward into the clinch, where he lands knees and kicks and also finds most of his takedowns.

Of course, the most interesting aspect of this matchup is the grappling battle. Carneiro is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, with 10 of his 20 wins coming by submission. Robertson’s background is in wrestling -- he wrestled for Division I Eastern Illinois University -- but he has six submissions of his own, including the brilliant and unusual “Suloev Stretch,” a modified kneebar from back mount with which he finished Brock Jardine in 2013. Carneiro’s ground game is more MMA traditional, focused on control and methodical progression, while Robertson is a frenetic scrambler who uses pressure and aggression to force mistakes from his opponents.

THE ODDS: Robertson (-115), Carneiro (-105)

THE PICK: Robertson is just wild and creative enough on the ground to give a fighter like Carneiro openings; he is also just wild and creative enough on the feet to prevent Carneiro from getting comfortable enough to pursue those openings. The game plan here for Robertson should be to swarm Carneiro, stay constantly in range and bully him with punches and clinch strikes. Carneiro cannot set up and finish takedowns as easily when he is being pressured, and his striking tends to fall apart when he feels uncomfortable. The pick is Robertson by second-round TKO.

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