Preview: UFC on ESPN 1 ‘Ngannou vs. Velasquez’

Lightweights

James Vick (13-2) vs. Paul Felder (15-4)

ODDS: Felder (-110), Vick (-110)

Felder suffered through a bit of a lost year in 2018, at least inside the cage. The UFC’s aggressive matchmaking almost swept him off the roster a few years ago, but 2016 and 2017 saw Felder make the transition from action fighter to actual fringe contender, relying on an underrated grappling game to beat Steven Ray and Charles Oliveira with some vicious ground-and-pound. As a result, he looked poised for a breakout year. Instead, nothing much got accomplished. Felder did make a name for himself in the commentary booth as one of the more entertaining analysts out there, but inside the cage, he had two fights fall through on late notice -- one thanks to Conor McGregor’s infamous UFC 223 bus attack and one thanks to Vick getting moved to another card. Felder did get in one fight, though, even if it was meaningless in the long run. After Vick was pulled, Felder stepped into another open slot and moved up to welterweight, where he lost a fun decision to Mike Perry. Now it is time to get back on track: Felder is back down at 155 pounds, and for the third time, he is set to face Vick.

Vick also overcame a slow start to his UFC career, though in his case, it mostly involved injuries. Vick would look good against a fellow prospect, only to disappear for a year and get matched up with someone in the same slot. Once the UFC did give Vick a big opportunity, it did not go well, as Beneil Dariush destroyed him in brutal fashion. For whatever reason, that at least got Vick some bigger fights going forward, and he did well. Vick finally started to master the use of his lanky 6-foot-3 frame and had some power behind his strikes, which showed out in an impressive knockout of Joseph Duffy. When Justin Gaethje needed a main event opponent in August, Vick was pulled from his fight with Felder and got the call. It could not have gone worse. Vick showed that all the problems from the Dariush fight were still there. Gaethje decided to charge and Vick reacted poorly to pressure, this time getting nuked in 87 seconds. At least Vick now has some main event recognition, but he needs a win here if he wants to remain relevant.

Felder’s secret is that despite being best known for his flashy striking, he is probably at his best as a strong clinch fighter. Unfortunately, sometimes it appears as though that is a secret to both himself and his opponent, so it usually depends on the other fighter to start implementing grappling exchanges that Felder can win. It will be interesting to see how each guy approaches this one. If it becomes a striking match, Vick should be able to pick apart Felder with little trouble, as “The Irish Dragon” does not apply the kind of pressure that usually gives Vick trouble. As a result, Felder may have to mix his approach. However, given how Felder’s fights typically go, it seems just as likely that Vick thinks Felder is more dangerous on the feet, tries to go after a submission and winds up getting overpowered. It is a weird fight, but Felder likes to trade, even when he is losing. The pick is Vick via decision.

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